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Description
Predicted Fed rate outcomes focus on who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair by December 31, 2026, and whether the lower bound of the federal funds rate will reach 2.5% or lower at any point through 2026. The resolution uses Senate confirmation as the primary source, with credible reporting as a fallback, and Fed Open Market Committee decisions to determine the 2.5% threshold, with emergency moves included. If an listed combination is not realized by the deadline, the market settles to Other.
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9
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Christopher Waller & Rate ≤ 2.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Christopher Waller & Rate > 2.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.