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Description
Trump declares election interference national emergency? is a binary event tracking whether President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, explicitly tied to interference in U.S. elections or election processes. The declaration must state that a national emergency exists, reference the National Emergencies Act, and explicitly cite interference in elections, procedures, systems, ballots, or voting machines as the basis. Declarations that fail to meet these strict criteria (including renewals of prior emergencies unless text is materially modified) do not resolve this market. The primary resolution sources are the Federal Register and official White House publications, with credible reporting as a fallback."
Event stats
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2
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 17 | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.