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Description
US–China tariff agreement by May 31, 2026. An official mutual tariff agreement between the United States and the People's Republic of China must be publicly announced by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026 to settle as Yes. Informal talks or unilateral declarations do not count; credible reporting confirming a mutual agreement also suffices. Agreements that include the US and China as parties, even with other nations, qualify.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x China tariff agreement by May 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.