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Description
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? entails a Yes if American and Cuban military forces engage in any direct use-of-force event—such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or exchange of gunfire—between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The Coast Guard and Cuban Border Guard are considered part of their respective militaries. A Yes requires a credible, consensus report of a direct engagement; non-violent actions or non-attack incidents do not qualify.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.