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Description
US and Russia military forces face a potential clash between May 28 and December 31, 2025. A military encounter, defined as direct use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or exchange of gunfire, resolves Yes; non-violent airspace violations, warning shots, or cyber actions do not. Settlement follows a consensus of credible reporting on any qualifying incident.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
4
Market highlights
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| January 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.