Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? The market resolves to Yes if any 2026 month tops the record for that month across all years, per NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data; ties also resolve to Yes. If NASA data is unavailable, a credible-source consensus will determine the outcome by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?Precipitation in NYC in March?Natural Disaster in 2026?Precipitation in Seattle in March?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.