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Description
NATO member states facing a clash before 2027 would require a military encounter between forces of at least two members. A Yes resolves if any direct use of force occurs—missile strikes, artillery exchanges, or comparable engagement—between two NATO militaries by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting; non-violent actions do not qualify.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.