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Description
Donald Trump public insult/demagoguery on a date in July 2026 is tracked with market pairs for each calendar day. Settlement follows a consensus of credible reporting on whether he makes any clearly negative personal insult, mocking, or attack toward a real individual on that date, via any written, verbal, or recorded statement. Rules distinguish personal insults from policy disagreements and require a direct reference or clear subject. The window is the specified July day in ET; outcomes resolve to Yes if such insult occurs, No otherwise.
Event stats
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Liquidity
Markets
31
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 2 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 3 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 4 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 5 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 6 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 8 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 9 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 10 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 11 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 12 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 13 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 14 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 15 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 17 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.