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Description
Iran nuclear test before 2027? markets assess whether Iran conducts an intentional nuclear device detonation by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A test is a deliberate non-combat detonation that yields a nuclear chain reaction, with credible reporting required for attribution if Iran is not explicitly claimed. Accidents, dirty bombs, or third-party actions do not count; a credibly attributed, unclaimed test may qualify if reporting links it to Iran. Settlement follows a broad consensus of credible reporting.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.