Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7 or March 15, 2026: Yes if Hezbollah or Iran launches a drone, missile, or air strike that lands on Cyprus’s ground by the stated deadline, excluding interception or SAM-only events. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting; the market stays open through the end of the second day after the resolution time, and if no consensus confirms a strike by then, the market resolves No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
2
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
How many different countries will Israel take military action against in March?Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by...?Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory. Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.