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Description
Megaquake by June 30? tracks whether at least one earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater occurs anywhere on Earth from market creation through June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution follows USGS Earthquake Hazards Program reports; if an event happens but is not yet reflected, the market may stay open up to seven days after the resolution time or until it appears on the resolution source. After a qualifying event is logged, the market remains open 24 hours to accommodate magnitude revisions, then settles to the latest data.
Event stats
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Markets
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Top market
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Related events
Natural Disaster in 2026?5kt meteor strike in 2026?Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Megaquake by March 31?Will a hurricane form by May 31?Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?Named storm forms before hurricane season?Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Highest temperature in London on March 10?Highest temperature in Chicago on March 10?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megaquake by June 30? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.