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Description
Hurricane landfall in the conterminous United States by May 31, 2026 is being tracked. The Yes outcome requires the National Hurricane Center to issue an advisory confirming that a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher has made landfall in the U.S. coastline between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying landfall occurs within this window, the No outcome will resolve after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution relies on the initial NHC advisory announcing landfall, even if later corrections occur.
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Related events
Natural Disaster in 2026?5kt meteor strike in 2026?Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Will a hurricane form by May 31?Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 9 - March 15?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.