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Description
Megaquake by March 31? tracks whether a truly extreme earthquake occurs anywhere on Earth with magnitude 8.0 or greater between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution follows the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with a 7-day grace if a large event appears only later in the source, and a 24-hour post-registration window to account for magnitude revisions before final settlement.
Event stats
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Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
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Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Natural Disaster in 2026?5kt meteor strike in 2026?Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Will a hurricane form by May 31?Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?Named storm forms before hurricane season?Megaquake by June 30?Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Highest temperature in London on March 10?Highest temperature in Chicago on March 10?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megaquake by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.