Price history
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Event stats
24h volume
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Liquidity
Markets
22
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Related events
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?US x Iran ceasefire by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?US strikes Iraq by...?Iran leader end of 2026?Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 11 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 12 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 13 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 14 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 16 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 17 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 18 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 19 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 20 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 21 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 22 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 23 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 24 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 25 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 26 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 27 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 29 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Military action through March 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.