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Description
US strike on Cuba? tracks whether a US-initiated aerial strike physically impacting Cuban soil occurs, as reported or announced by the stated date. A qualifying strike includes bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US forces or operatives that reach land within Cuba’s terrestrial territory, with credible reporting as the resolution source. Intercepted surface-to-air engagements, artillery, or cyber actions do not qualify. The market closes after the second day following the resolution time unless a qualifying strike is confirmed by consensus reporting earlier; if confirmation is not achieved by that deadline, the market resolves to No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
3
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.