Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
France, the United Kingdom, or Germany strike Iran by June 30, 2026, requires a direct aerial attack involving bombs, drones, or missiles impacting Iranian soil or an official Iranian embassy or consulate. Intercepted missiles, surface-to-air engagements, artillery, naval shelling, cyber operations, or ground incursions do not qualify. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?US x Iran ceasefire by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?US strikes Iraq by...?Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by March 31?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.