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Description
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? is a binary, deadline-driven market. It resolves to Yes if by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET the United States government explicitly states in an on-the-record, official capacity that Iran carried out the attack near the Oslo Embassy on March 7, 2026; statements from military or intelligence services count only when issued in official governmental capacity and expressly attribute responsibility. Ambiguous or indirect claims do not qualify as Yes.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services. Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack. The primary resolution source will be official government statements. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.