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Description
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31, 2026? The market resolves to Yes if the Trump Administration formally creates a tariff dividend or rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, via signing legislation or executive action. Any qualifying payment attributed mainly to tariff revenue—even if the law or action signs later or pays earlier—counts if announced within the period. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.