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Description
Tornado counts in the United States for July are being tracked, with resolution based on the monthly total as published by the NOAA NCEI Tornadoes Time Series. The month’s final count is determined from the first official NOAA/NCEI release after the scheduled August 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET publication time, using only data present in the final dataset for July. If data is unavailable by that time, the market stays open until data is published, and if needed the most recent prior month’s data can guide settlement; if NOAA data becomes unavailable, a credible alternate source may be used.
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9
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Related events
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Natural Disaster in 2026?Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.