Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Iranian military action against Israel on a listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2) is evaluated as a Yes if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil on that date. A qualifying strike impacts Israeli ground territory; strikes in the West Bank or Gaza Strip do not count. Only actions explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory count; attacks by proxies do not. Resolution sources include official statements or credible reporting, and if unresolved by the third calendar date after the date, the market resolves to No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
14
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by March 31?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.